ToolAssay

Detect basket arbitrage in a Polymarket neg-risk (mutually-exclusive, multi-outc

Detect basket arbitrage in a Polymarket neg-risk (mutually-exclusive, multi-outcome) event - since a full YES basket across all outcomes always settles to exactly $1, a basket price away from $1 is a near risk-free edge. Also computes buy/sell_basket_capacity_shares, the actual liquidity-bottleneck size executable right now, so this is not just a top-of-book mirage. Polymarket only (Kalshi's Data ToS forbids this use of their data). Paid in USDC on Base.

Not tested: has real-world effectsour last check, 2026-10-01
0 of 0checks answered this week
n/amedian answer time
$0.03listed price per call
n/aprice it asked us

Paid test badge: not yet. The checks above are free: we call the tool without paying and read the payment request it sends back. The Verified badge needs paid calls whose answers match the promised output, and nobody can buy a badge.

Endpoint

GET https://alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com/v1/prediction/neg-risk-arbitrage

CategoryMarket data
Provider hostalphapipeline-eu.onrender.com
Networkseip155:8453
Payment schemesexact
Self-reported calls, 30 days0 from 0 payers (the provider's figure, not ours)

Our checks, last 30 days

We never call tools that send, buy, move money or file anything, not even without paying.

Example input (from the provider)

{
  "method": "GET",
  "queryParams": {
    "event_slug": "presidential-election-winner-2028"
  },
  "type": "http"
}

Promised output schema (from the provider)

{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "input": {
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "properties": {
        "method": {
          "enum": [
            "GET",
            "HEAD",
            "DELETE"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        },
        "queryParams": {
          "properties": {
            "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": {
              "description": "Estimated all-in cost (Polygon gas for the neg-risk adapter's convert call, taker fees, slippage buffer) as a percentage of $1 basket notional. Defaults to 1.5.",
              "type": "number"
            },
            "event_slug": {
              "description": "Polymarket event slug, from the event's URL on polymarket.com.",
              "type": "string"
            },
            "max_slippage_pct": {
              "description": "How far past each leg's best price to walk the book when sizing executable basket capacity. Defaults to 1.0.",
              "type": "number"
            },
            "min_net_edge_pct": {
              "description": "Minimum net edge (% of $1 basket notional) required to flag arbitrage_viable: true. Defaults to 1.0.",
              "type": "number"
            }
          },
          "required": [
            "event_slug"
          ],
          "type": "object"
        },
        "type": {
          "const": "http",
          "type": "string"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "type",
        "method"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    },
    "output": {
      "properties": {
        "example": {
          "properties": {
            "arbitrage_viable": {
              "title": "Arbitrage Viable",
              "type": "boolean"
            },
            "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": {
              "title": "Assumed Round Trip Cost Pct",
              "type": "number"
            },
            "basket_ask_sum": {
              "anyOf": [
                {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                {
                  "type": "null"
                }
              ],
              "default": null,
              "title": "Basket Ask Sum"
            },
            "basket_bid_sum": {
              "anyOf": [
                {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                {
                  "type": "null"
                }
              ],
              "default": null,
              "title": "Basket Bid Sum"
            },
            "buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd": {
              "anyOf": [
                {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                {
                  "type": "null"
                }
              ],
              "default": null,
              "title": "Buy Basket Capacity Notional Usd"
            },
            "buy_basket_capacity_shares": {
              "title": "Buy Basket Capacity Shares",
              "type": "number"
            },
            "buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": {
              "anyOf": [
                {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                {
                  "type": "null"
                }
              ],
              "default": null,
              "description": "Same capacity as buy_basket_capacity_shares, but priced by walking the actual order-book depth (volume-weighted) instead of using each leg's top-of-book price - a more realistic fill cost than buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd. Null if depth data was insufficient.",
              "title": "Buy Basket Capacity Vwap Notional Usd"
            },
            "buy_basket_gross_edge_usd": {
              "anyOf": [
                {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                {
                  "type": "null"
                }
              ],
              "default": null,
              "title": "Buy Basket Gross Edge Usd"
            },
            "buy_basket_net_edge_usd": {
              "anyOf": [
                {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                {
                  "type": "null"
                }
              ],
              "default": null,
              "title": "Buy Basket Net Edge Usd"
            },
            "data_source": {
              "title": "Data Source",
              "type": "string"
            },
            "event_slug": {
              "title": "Event Slug",
              "type": "string"
            },
            "generated_at": {
              "properties": {
                "kst": {
                  "title": "Kst",
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "utc": {
                  "title": "Utc",
                  "type": "string"
                }
              },
              "required": [
                "utc",
                "kst"
              ],
              "title": "TimestampPair",
              "type": "object"
            },
            "notice": {
              "anyOf": [
                {
                  "type": "string"
                },
                {
                  "type": "null"
                }
              ],
              "default": null,
              "title": "Notice"
            },
            "num_outcomes": {
              "title": "Num Outcomes",
              "type": "integer"
            },
            "oldest_book_snapshot_time": {
              "anyOf": [
                {
                  "properties": {
                    "kst": {
                      "title": "Kst",
                      "type": "string"
                    },
                    "utc": {
                      "title": "Utc",
                      "type": "string"
                    }
                  },
                  "required": [
                    "utc",
                    "kst"
                  ],
                  "title": "TimestampPair",
                  "type": "object"
                },
                {
                 

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