Detect basket arbitrage in a Polymarket neg-risk (mutually-exclusive, multi-outc
Detect basket arbitrage in a Polymarket neg-risk (mutually-exclusive, multi-outcome) event - since a full YES basket across all outcomes always settles to exactly $1, a basket price away from $1 is a near risk-free edge. Also computes buy/sell_basket_capacity_shares, the actual liquidity-bottleneck size executable right now, so this is not just a top-of-book mirage. Polymarket only (Kalshi's Data ToS forbids this use of their data). Paid in USDC on Base.
Paid test badge: not yet. The checks above are free: we call the tool without paying and read the payment request it sends back. The Verified badge needs paid calls whose answers match the promised output, and nobody can buy a badge.
Endpoint
GET https://alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com/v1/prediction/neg-risk-arbitrage
| Category | Market data |
|---|---|
| Provider host | alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com |
| Networks | eip155:8453 |
| Payment schemes | exact |
| Self-reported calls, 30 days | 0 from 0 payers (the provider's figure, not ours) |
Our checks, last 30 days
We never call tools that send, buy, move money or file anything, not even without paying.
Example input (from the provider)
{
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
"event_slug": "presidential-election-winner-2028"
},
"type": "http"
}
Promised output schema (from the provider)
{
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"input": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET",
"HEAD",
"DELETE"
],
"type": "string"
},
"queryParams": {
"properties": {
"assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": {
"description": "Estimated all-in cost (Polygon gas for the neg-risk adapter's convert call, taker fees, slippage buffer) as a percentage of $1 basket notional. Defaults to 1.5.",
"type": "number"
},
"event_slug": {
"description": "Polymarket event slug, from the event's URL on polymarket.com.",
"type": "string"
},
"max_slippage_pct": {
"description": "How far past each leg's best price to walk the book when sizing executable basket capacity. Defaults to 1.0.",
"type": "number"
},
"min_net_edge_pct": {
"description": "Minimum net edge (% of $1 basket notional) required to flag arbitrage_viable: true. Defaults to 1.0.",
"type": "number"
}
},
"required": [
"event_slug"
],
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"const": "http",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"type": "object"
},
"output": {
"properties": {
"example": {
"properties": {
"arbitrage_viable": {
"title": "Arbitrage Viable",
"type": "boolean"
},
"assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": {
"title": "Assumed Round Trip Cost Pct",
"type": "number"
},
"basket_ask_sum": {
"anyOf": [
{
"type": "number"
},
{
"type": "null"
}
],
"default": null,
"title": "Basket Ask Sum"
},
"basket_bid_sum": {
"anyOf": [
{
"type": "number"
},
{
"type": "null"
}
],
"default": null,
"title": "Basket Bid Sum"
},
"buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd": {
"anyOf": [
{
"type": "number"
},
{
"type": "null"
}
],
"default": null,
"title": "Buy Basket Capacity Notional Usd"
},
"buy_basket_capacity_shares": {
"title": "Buy Basket Capacity Shares",
"type": "number"
},
"buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": {
"anyOf": [
{
"type": "number"
},
{
"type": "null"
}
],
"default": null,
"description": "Same capacity as buy_basket_capacity_shares, but priced by walking the actual order-book depth (volume-weighted) instead of using each leg's top-of-book price - a more realistic fill cost than buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd. Null if depth data was insufficient.",
"title": "Buy Basket Capacity Vwap Notional Usd"
},
"buy_basket_gross_edge_usd": {
"anyOf": [
{
"type": "number"
},
{
"type": "null"
}
],
"default": null,
"title": "Buy Basket Gross Edge Usd"
},
"buy_basket_net_edge_usd": {
"anyOf": [
{
"type": "number"
},
{
"type": "null"
}
],
"default": null,
"title": "Buy Basket Net Edge Usd"
},
"data_source": {
"title": "Data Source",
"type": "string"
},
"event_slug": {
"title": "Event Slug",
"type": "string"
},
"generated_at": {
"properties": {
"kst": {
"title": "Kst",
"type": "string"
},
"utc": {
"title": "Utc",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"utc",
"kst"
],
"title": "TimestampPair",
"type": "object"
},
"notice": {
"anyOf": [
{
"type": "string"
},
{
"type": "null"
}
],
"default": null,
"title": "Notice"
},
"num_outcomes": {
"title": "Num Outcomes",
"type": "integer"
},
"oldest_book_snapshot_time": {
"anyOf": [
{
"properties": {
"kst": {
"title": "Kst",
"type": "string"
},
"utc": {
"title": "Utc",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"utc",
"kst"
],
"title": "TimestampPair",
"type": "object"
},
{