{"slug":"alphapipeline-eu-onrender-com-v1-prediction-neg-risk-arbitra-1e53e1","title":"Detect basket arbitrage in a Polymarket neg-risk (mutually-exclusive, multi-outc","host":"alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com","method":"GET","resource":"https://alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com/v1/prediction/neg-risk-arbitrage","category":"market","description":"Detect basket arbitrage in a Polymarket neg-risk (mutually-exclusive, multi-outcome) event - since a full YES basket across all outcomes always settles to exactly $1, a basket price away from $1 is a near risk-free edge. Also computes buy/sell_basket_capacity_shares, the actual liquidity-bottleneck ","price_listed":0.03,"price_asked":null,"state":"effects","state_label":"Not tested: has real-world effects","checks_7d":0,"answered_7d":0,"latency_ms_median":null,"reported_calls_30d":0,"reported_payers_30d":0,"networks":["eip155:8453"],"badge":"unverified","paid_checks_7d":0,"paid_ok_7d":0,"example_input":{"method":"GET","queryParams":{"event_slug":"presidential-election-winner-2028"},"type":"http"},"output_schema":{"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","properties":{"input":{"additionalProperties":false,"properties":{"method":{"enum":["GET","HEAD","DELETE"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"properties":{"assumed_round_trip_cost_pct":{"description":"Estimated all-in cost (Polygon gas for the neg-risk adapter's convert call, taker fees, slippage buffer) as a percentage of $1 basket notional. Defaults to 1.5.","type":"number"},"event_slug":{"description":"Polymarket event slug, from the event's URL on polymarket.com.","type":"string"},"max_slippage_pct":{"description":"How far past each leg's best price to walk the book when sizing executable basket capacity. Defaults to 1.0.","type":"number"},"min_net_edge_pct":{"description":"Minimum net edge (% of $1 basket notional) required to flag arbitrage_viable: true. Defaults to 1.0.","type":"number"}},"required":["event_slug"],"type":"object"},"type":{"const":"http","type":"string"}},"required":["type","method"],"type":"object"},"output":{"properties":{"example":{"properties":{"arbitrage_viable":{"title":"Arbitrage Viable","type":"boolean"},"assumed_round_trip_cost_pct":{"title":"Assumed Round Trip Cost Pct","type":"number"},"basket_ask_sum":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"title":"Basket Ask Sum"},"basket_bid_sum":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"title":"Basket Bid Sum"},"buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"title":"Buy Basket Capacity Notional Usd"},"buy_basket_capacity_shares":{"title":"Buy Basket Capacity Shares","type":"number"},"buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"description":"Same capacity as buy_basket_capacity_shares, but priced by walking the actual order-book depth (volume-weighted) instead of using each leg's top-of-book price - a more realistic fill cost than buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd. Null if depth data was insufficient.","title":"Buy Basket Capacity Vwap Notional Usd"},"buy_basket_gross_edge_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"title":"Buy Basket Gross Edge Usd"},"buy_basket_net_edge_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"title":"Buy Basket Net Edge Usd"},"data_source":{"title":"Data Source","type":"string"},"event_slug":{"title":"Event Slug","type":"string"},"generated_at":{"properties":{"kst":{"title":"Kst","type":"string"},"utc":{"title":"Utc","type":"string"}},"required":["utc","kst"],"title":"TimestampPair","type":"object"},"notice":{"anyOf":[{"type":"string"},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"title":"Notice"},"num_outcomes":{"title":"Num Outcomes","type":"integer"},"oldest_book_snapshot_time":{"anyOf":[{"properties":{"kst":{"title":"Kst","type":"string"},"utc":{"title":"Utc","type":"string"}},"required":["utc","kst"],"title":"TimestampPair","type":"object"},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"description":"The oldest of each leg's own order-book snapshot timestamp - the staleness bottleneck across all legs, since the whole basket calculation is only as fresh as its stalest leg. Null if no leg reported a timestamp."},"opportunity":{"title":"Opportunity","type":"string"},"sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"title":"Sell Basket Capacity Notional Usd"},"sell_basket_capacity_shares":{"title":"Sell Basket Capacity Shares","type":"number"},"sell_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"description":"VWAP-priced equivalent of sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd - see buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd.","title":"Sell Basket Capacity Vwap Notional Usd"},"sell_basket_gross_edge_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"title":"Sell Basket Gross Edge Usd"},"sell_basket_net_edge_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"title":"Sell Basket Net Edge Usd"}},"required":["generated_at","event_slug","num_outcomes","assumed_round_trip_cost_pct","buy_basket_capacity_shares","sell_basket_capacity_shares","opportunity","arbitrage_viable","data_source"],"title":"PredictionNegRiskArbitrageResponse","type":"object"},"type":{"type":"string"}},"required":["type"],"type":"object"}},"required":["input"],"type":"object"},"history":[],"description_full":"Detect basket arbitrage in a Polymarket neg-risk (mutually-exclusive, multi-outcome) event - since a full YES basket across all outcomes always settles to exactly $1, a basket price away from $1 is a near risk-free edge. Also computes buy/sell_basket_capacity_shares, the actual liquidity-bottleneck size executable right now, so this is not just a top-of-book mirage. Polymarket only (Kalshi's Data ToS forbids this use of their data). Paid in USDC on Base.","last_updated":"2026-10-01T14:31:23.94Z","schemes":["exact"]}