ToolAssay

What does the market think?

What does the market think? Ask any event question in plain English and get the implied probability from live Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets: per-venue odds, a liquidity-weighted consensus forecast, and a cross-venue divergence flag.

Answeringour last check, 2026-09-24
1 of 1checks answered this week
375 msmedian answer time
$0.015listed price per call
$0.015price it asked us

Paid test badge: not yet. The checks above are free: we call the tool without paying and read the payment request it sends back. The Verified badge needs paid calls whose answers match the promised output, and nobody can buy a badge.

Endpoint

POST https://x402.fenixfoundry.com/probability

CategoryMarket data
Provider hostx402.fenixfoundry.com
Networkseip155:8453
Payment schemesexact
Self-reported calls, 30 days3 from 2 payers (the provider's figure, not ours)

Our checks, last 30 days

DayResultHTTPAskedTime
2026-09-24 valid payment request 402$0.015 375 ms

Example input (from the provider)

{
  "body": {
    "maxMarkets": 4,
    "q": "Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?"
  },
  "bodyType": "json",
  "method": "POST",
  "type": "http"
}

Promised output schema (from the provider)

{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "input": {
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "properties": {
        "body": {
          "additionalProperties": false,
          "properties": {
            "maxMarkets": {
              "default": 6,
              "description": "Maximum number of matched markets to aggregate and return (top-K by match quality). Defaults to 6.",
              "maximum": 10,
              "minimum": 1,
              "type": "integer"
            },
            "q": {
              "description": "Natural-language description of the event you want odds for, e.g. \"Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?\". Matched against Polymarket and Kalshi market questions.",
              "maxLength": 500,
              "minLength": 3,
              "type": "string"
            }
          },
          "required": [
            "q"
          ],
          "type": "object"
        },
        "bodyType": {
          "enum": [
            "json",
            "form-data",
            "text"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        },
        "method": {
          "enum": [
            "POST"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        },
        "type": {
          "const": "http",
          "type": "string"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "type",
        "method",
        "bodyType",
        "body"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    },
    "output": {
      "properties": {
        "example": {
          "properties": {
            "asOf": {
              "type": "string"
            },
            "attribution": {
              "type": "string"
            },
            "confidence": {
              "description": "0..1 \u2014 match quality x venue coverage x liquidity.",
              "type": "number"
            },
            "divergence": {
              "description": "Highest minus lowest venue probability; a large value means the venues disagree.",
              "type": [
                "number",
                "null"
              ]
            },
            "markets": {
              "description": "Top-K matched markets only, never a bulk market dump.",
              "items": {
                "properties": {
                  "closeTime": {
                    "type": [
                      "string",
                      "null"
                    ]
                  },
                  "id": {
                    "description": "Polymarket slug or Kalshi ticker.",
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "liquidity": {
                    "type": [
                      "number",
                      "null"
                    ]
                  },
                  "matchScore": {
                    "type": "number"
                  },
                  "probability": {
                    "type": "number"
                  },
                  "question": {
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "status": {
                    "enum": [
                      "open",
                      "closed",
                      "resolved"
                    ],
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "url": {
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "venue": {
                    "enum": [
                      "polymarket",
                      "kalshi"
                    ],
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "volume": {
                    "type": [
                      "number",
                      "null"
                    ]
                  }
                },
                "required": [
                  "venue",
                  "id",
                  "question",
                  "url",
                  "probability"
                ],
                "type": "object"
              },
              "type": "array"
            },
            "probability": {
              "description": "Liquidity-weighted cross-venue implied probability, 0..1. Null when no market matched.",
              "type": [
                "number",
                "null"
              ]
            },
            "query": {
              "type": "string"
            },
            "source": {
              "enum": [
                "index",
                "live"
              ],
              "type": "string"
            }
          },
          "required": [
            "probability",
            "confidence",
            "markets",
            "divergence",
            "asOf",
            "attribution"
          ],
          "type": "object"
        },
        "type": {
          "type": "string"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "type"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "input"
  ],
  "type": "object"
}

This page as JSON