Where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on the same event, ranked by gap — Active p
Where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on the same event, ranked by gap — Active prediction markets priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket, ranked by how far the two venues disagree on the implied probability — with direction, each venue's liquidity, and, where each venue's own resolved history proves it, which has been better calibrated in that category. Derived analytics; the calibration claim is…
Answeringour last check, 2026-10-18
1 of 1checks answered this week
600 msmedian answer time
$0.05listed price per call
$0.05price it asked us
Paid test badge: not yet. The checks above are free: we call the tool without paying and read the payment request it sends back. The Verified badge needs paid calls whose answers match the promised output, and nobody can buy a badge.
Endpoint
GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/cross-venue/disagreement
| Category | Market data |
|---|---|
| Provider host | x402-factory.com |
| Networks | eip155:8453 |
| Payment schemes | exact |
| Self-reported calls, 30 days | 1 from 1 payers (the provider's figure, not ours) |
Our checks, last 30 days
| Day | Result | HTTP | Asked | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | valid payment request | 402 | $0.05 | 600 ms |
Example input (from the provider)
{
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {},
"type": "http"
}
Promised output schema (from the provider)
{
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"input": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"queryParams": {
"properties": {
"category": {
"description": "Filter to one category, e.g. politics",
"maxLength": 20,
"minLength": 2,
"type": "string"
},
"min_gap": {
"description": "Only rows whose venue gap is at least this",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
}
},
"required": [],
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"const": "http",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"type": "object"
},
"output": {
"properties": {
"example": {
"properties": {
"data": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"calibration_reference": {
"type": "string"
},
"linked_market_count": {
"type": "number"
},
"markets": {
"items": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"better_calibrated_venue": {
"anyOf": [
{
"type": "string"
},
{
"type": "null"
}
],
"description": "The venue with lower calibration error on ITS OWN markets in this category (not a head-to-head on identical markets); null unless both venues clear n>=200 and the gap is statistically significant"
},
"calibration_basis": {
"anyOf": [
{
"items": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"calibration_error": {
"type": "number"
},
"category": {
"type": "string"
},
"horizon_hours": {
"type": "number"
},
"n": {
"type": "number"
},
"venue": {
"type": "string"
},
"window": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"venue",
"category",
"window",
"horizon_hours",
"calibration_error",
"n"
],
"type": "object"
},
"type": "array"
},
{
"type": "null"
}
],
"description": "Both venues' audited calibration numbers behind the verdict; null when the overlay is withheld"
},
"calibration_computed_at": {
"anyOf": [
{
"type": "string"
},
{
"type": "null"
}
],
"description": "When the calibration overlay was computed (up to ~1h stale; null when withheld)"
},
"category": {
"type": "string"
},
"direction": {
"description": "Which venue prices it higher",
"type": "string"
},
"gap": {
"description": "Max \u2212 min implied probability across the venues pricing this event",
"type": "number"
},
"question": {
"type": "string"
},
"resolution_date": {
"type": "string"
},
"slug": {
"type": "string"
},
"venues": {
"items": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"implied_p": {
"type": "number"
},
"liquidity_usd": {
"type": "number"
},
"venue": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"venue",
"implied_p",
"liquidity_usd"
],
"type": "object"