Probability of a specific weather event in a window, for any point or city — Our

Probability of a specific weather event in a window, for any point or city — Our model's probability that a condition (temp above/below a threshold, precip amount, wind, any precip, named-storm landfall) occurs in a window up to 31 days out, with the method labeled. When a listed prediction market covers the same event, it is cross-referenced.

Paid test badge: not yet. The checks above are free: we call the tool without paying and read the payment request it sends back. The Verified badge needs paid calls whose answers match the promised output, and nobody can buy a badge.

Endpoint

GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/climate-events/probability

Our checks, last 30 days

Example input (from the provider)

{
  "method": "GET",
  "queryParams": {
    "city": "nyc",
    "condition": "temp_above",
    "threshold": 35,
    "window_end": "2026-07-24T23:59:59Z",
    "window_start": "2026-07-24T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "type": "http"
}

Promised output schema (from the provider)

{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "input": {
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "properties": {
        "method": {
          "enum": [
            "GET"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        },
        "queryParams": {
          "properties": {
            "city": {
              "description": "Major US city name as an alternative to lat/lon",
              "maxLength": 40,
              "minLength": 2,
              "type": "string"
            },
            "condition": {
              "enum": [
                "temp_above",
                "temp_below",
                "precip_above",
                "wind_above",
                "any_precip",
                "named_storm_landfall"
              ],
              "type": "string"
            },
            "lat": {
              "maximum": 90,
              "minimum": -90,
              "type": "number"
            },
            "lon": {
              "maximum": 180,
              "minimum": -180,
              "type": "number"
            },
            "threshold": {
              "description": "Metric units: \u00b0C for temp, mm for precip, kph for wind",
              "type": "number"
            },
            "window_end": {
              "format": "date-time",
              "pattern": "^(?:(?:\\d\\d[2468][048]|\\d\\d[13579][26]|\\d\\d0[48]|[02468][048]00|[13579][26]00)-02-29|\\d{4}-(?:(?:0[13578]|1[02])-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|3[01])|(?:0[469]|11)-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|30)|(?:02)-(?:0[1-9]|1\\d|2[0-8])))T(?:(?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d(?::[0-5]\\d(?:\\.\\d+)?)?(?:Z|([+-](?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d)))$",
              "type": "string"
            },
            "window_start": {
              "format": "date-time",
              "pattern": "^(?:(?:\\d\\d[2468][048]|\\d\\d[13579][26]|\\d\\d0[48]|[02468][048]00|[13579][26]00)-02-29|\\d{4}-(?:(?:0[13578]|1[02])-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|3[01])|(?:0[469]|11)-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|30)|(?:02)-(?:0[1-9]|1\\d|2[0-8])))T(?:(?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d(?::[0-5]\\d(?:\\.\\d+)?)?(?:Z|([+-](?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d)))$",
              "type": "string"
            }
          },
          "required": [
            "condition",
            "window_start",
            "window_end"
          ],
          "type": "object"
        },
        "type": {
          "const": "http",
          "type": "string"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "type",
        "method"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    },
    "output": {
      "properties": {
        "example": {
          "properties": {
            "data": {
              "additionalProperties": false,
              "properties": {
                "comparable_market": {
                  "additionalProperties": false,
                  "properties": {
                    "market_p": {
                      "maximum": 1,
                      "minimum": 0,
                      "type": "number"
                    },
                    "slug": {
                      "type": "string"
                    }
                  },
                  "required": [
                    "slug",
                    "market_p"
                  ],
                  "type": "object"
                },
                "method": {
                  "description": "What produced the number: \"runway-oracle-v4\" (calibrated model), \"nws-blend (\u2026)\", \"nws-gridpoint (\u2026)\" with any derivation disclosed, \"climatology (\u2026)\", or \"stub\"",
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "probability": {
                  "maximum": 1,
                  "minimum": 0,
                  "type": "number"
                }
              },
              "required": [
                "probability",
                "method"
              ],
              "type": "object"
            },
            "meta": {
              "type": "object"
            }
          },
          "required": [
            "data",
            "meta"
          ],
          "type": "object"
        },
        "type": {
          "type": "string"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "type"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "input"
  ],
  "type": "object"
}

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