Single models are everywhere

Single models are everywhere. This is the disagreement between them: per hour a median with a p15/p85 band, the full min/max spread, how many models still carry that hour, an agreement score, rain probability derived from pooled ensemble members rather than one deterministic run, a frost assessment, and the official DWD warnings in force for the point.

Paid test badge: not yet. The checks above are free: we call the tool without paying and read the payment request it sends back. The Verified badge needs paid calls whose answers match the promised output, and nobody can buy a badge.

Endpoint

POST https://wetter.halowerk.com/ensemble

Our checks, last 30 days

Example input (from the provider)

{
  "body": {
    "lat": 52.21,
    "lon": 7.02
  },
  "bodyType": "json",
  "method": "POST",
  "type": "http"
}

Promised output schema (from the provider)

{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "input": {
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "properties": {
        "body": {
          "properties": {
            "hours": {
              "default": 24,
              "description": "Forecast hours, up to 168 (seven days). Short range models drop out beyond their own horizon; the per hour \"models\" count shows it.",
              "maximum": 168,
              "minimum": 1,
              "type": "integer"
            },
            "lat": {
              "description": "Latitude in decimal degrees.",
              "maximum": 90,
              "minimum": -90,
              "type": "number"
            },
            "lon": {
              "description": "Longitude in decimal degrees.",
              "maximum": 180,
              "minimum": -180,
              "type": "number"
            },
            "models": {
              "default": [
                "icon_d2",
                "icon_eu",
                "knmi_harmonie_arome_netherlands",
                "dmi_seamless",
                "meteofrance_seamless",
                "ukmo_seamless",
                "ecmwf_ifs025",
                "ecmwf_aifs025_single",
                "gfs_seamless",
                "gem_seamless",
                "jma_seamless",
                "cma_grapes_global"
              ],
              "description": "Restrict the comparison to a subset of the twelve models. At least two, because a comparison of one model is just a forecast.",
              "items": {
                "enum": [
                  "icon_d2",
                  "icon_eu",
                  "knmi_harmonie_arome_netherlands",
                  "dmi_seamless",
                  "meteofrance_seamless",
                  "ukmo_seamless",
                  "ecmwf_ifs025",
                  "ecmwf_aifs025_single",
                  "gfs_seamless",
                  "gem_seamless",
                  "jma_seamless",
                  "cma_grapes_global"
                ],
                "type": "string"
              },
              "minItems": 2,
              "type": "array"
            },
            "timezone": {
              "default": "UTC",
              "description": "IANA zone name for the returned timestamps, for example Europe/Berlin.",
              "type": "string"
            },
            "variables": {
              "default": [
                "temperature_2m",
                "precipitation",
                "wind_speed_10m"
              ],
              "description": "Which variables to compare. wind_direction_10m is aggregated as a circular mean with a directional consensus, weather_code as a majority vote; every other variable gets median, p15, p85, min, max and spread.",
              "items": {
                "enum": [
                  "temperature_2m",
                  "apparent_temperature",
                  "dew_point_2m",
                  "relative_humidity_2m",
                  "precipitation",
                  "snowfall",
                  "cloud_cover",
                  "wind_speed_10m",
                  "wind_gusts_10m",
                  "surface_pressure",
                  "pressure_msl",
                  "shortwave_radiation",
                  "cape",
                  "wind_direction_10m",
                  "weather_code"
                ],
                "type": "string"
              },
              "maxItems": 8,
              "type": "array"
            }
          },
          "required": [
            "lat",
            "lon"
          ],
          "type": "object"
        },
        "bodyType": {
          "enum": [
            "json",
            "form-data",
            "text"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        },
        "method": {
          "enum": [
            "POST"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        },
        "type": {
          "const": "http",
          "type": "string"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "type",
        "method",
        "bodyType",
        "body"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "input"
  ],
  "type": "object"
}

This page as JSON