GFS+ECMWF ensemble temperature probability for NWS weather prediction markets

Answeringour last check, 2026-09-24

1 of 1checks answered this week

737 msmedian answer time

$0.02listed price per call

$0.02price it asked us

Paid test badge: not yet. The checks above are free: we call the tool without paying and read the payment request it sends back. The Verified badge needs paid calls whose answers match the promised output, and nobody can buy a badge.

Endpoint

GET https://weather.lonestaroracle.xyz/forecast

Category	Everything else
Provider host	weather.lonestaroracle.xyz
Networks	eip155:8453, solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp
Payment schemes	exact
Self-reported calls, 30 days	1 from 1 payers (the provider's figure, not ours)

Our checks, last 30 days

Day	Result	HTTP	Asked	Time
2026-09-24	valid payment request	402	$0.02	737 ms

Example input (from the provider)

{
  "method": "GET",
  "queryParams": {
    "city": "example",
    "date": "example",
    "direction": "greater",
    "threshold": 1
  },
  "type": "http"
}

Promised output schema (from the provider)

{
  "category": "weather",
  "description": "7-model consensus + 80 ensemble members (GEFS 30 + ECMWF 50). Returns blended prob_exceeds (empirical + Gumbel), trade signal (YES/NO/PASS), ensemble_empirical_prob, method_divergence (forces PASS if >0.15), and outlier model. Coordinates aligned to NWS ASOS settlement stations used by Kalshi and Polymarket.",
  "name": "LoneStarOracle \u2014 WeatherOracle",
  "properties": {
    "input": {
      "properties": {
        "method": {
          "enum": [
            "GET",
            "HEAD",
            "DELETE"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        },
        "queryParams": {
          "properties": {
            "city": {
              "title": "City",
              "type": "string"
            },
            "date": {
              "title": "Date",
              "type": "string"
            },
            "direction": {
              "default": "greater",
              "title": "Direction",
              "type": "string"
            },
            "threshold": {
              "title": "Threshold",
              "type": "number"
            }
          },
          "type": "object"
        },
        "type": {
          "const": "http",
          "type": "string"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "type",
        "method"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    },
    "output": {
      "properties": {
        "example": {
          "city": "Chicago",
          "confidence": "medium",
          "data_source": "7-model consensus via Open-Meteo: GFS, ECMWF, ICON, GEM, HRRR, NAM, NBM (all free)",
          "days_out": 5,
          "direction": "greater",
          "ensemble_members": 31,
          "mean_high_f": 71.4,
          "prob_exceeds": 0.312,
          "rain_probability": 0.18,
          "std_high_f": 3.2,
          "summary": "Chicago on 2026-04-26: P(high > 73\u00b0F) = 31.2% | Mean 71.4\u00b0F \u00b1 3.2\u00b0F | Confidence: medium",
          "target_date": "2026-04-26",
          "threshold_f": 73
        },
        "type": {
          "type": "string"
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "type"
      ],
      "type": "object"
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "input"
  ],
  "tags": [
    "weather",
    "forecast",
    "prediction-market",
    "kalshi",
    "probability",
    "gfs"
  ],
  "type": "object",
  "version": "1.0.0"
}

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