Strait of Hormuz war-risk transit premium nowcast
Strait of Hormuz war-risk transit premium nowcast: a live MODELED war-risk insurance multiple (Nx over the peace baseline, on the published 1x-80x scale) for moving a tanker through the strait, recomputed every 5 minutes from throughput deviation (IMF PortWatch), the escalation forecast (Polymarket + Kalshi + Manifold + Brent-WTI spread), crude implied volatility (OVX), and event pressure (news and maritime RSS feeds, the PGSA incident feed and GDELT). The standing straits.live insurance-estimate multiple is carried only as a static reference (it is set manually and changes infrequently); the modeled figure is the live signal, not a divergence from that anchor. Returns a band, a curated VLCC war-premium band ($/voyage, estimated separately from the modeled multiple and not derived from it), per-driver detail, and a confidence that degrades on stale feeds or thin market volume. A modeled situational-awareness indicator, not an insurance quote.
Paid test badge: not yet. The checks above are free: we call the tool without paying and read the payment request it sends back. The Verified badge needs paid calls whose answers match the promised output, and nobody can buy a badge.
Endpoint
GET https://straits.live/api/premium/risk-premium
| Category | Market data |
|---|---|
| Provider host | straits.live |
| Networks | eip155:8453 |
| Payment schemes | exact |
| Self-reported calls, 30 days | 1 from 1 payers (the provider's figure, not ours) |
Our checks, last 30 days
| Day | Result | HTTP | Asked | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | valid payment request | 402 | $0.05 | 408 ms |
Example input (from the provider)
{
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {},
"type": "http"
}
Promised output schema (from the provider)
{
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"input": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"queryParams": {
"properties": {},
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"const": "http",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"type": "object"
},
"output": {
"properties": {
"example": {
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type"
],
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"input"
],
"type": "object"
}