Calibrated YES-probability for a binary market question
Calibrated YES-probability for a binary market question: Monte Carlo of LLM agent societies + base-rate-anchored expert panel, grounded in live price, vol, funding, Polymarket odds and calendar. Async: 202 + forecast_id, poll free. Returns probability, 80% interval, edge vs market, drivers, commitment hash. Public Brier record.
Answeringour last check, 2026-09-30
1 of 1checks answered this week
426 msmedian answer time
$0.25listed price per call
$0.25price it asked us
Paid test badge: not yet. The checks above are free: we call the tool without paying and read the payment request it sends back. The Verified badge needs paid calls whose answers match the promised output, and nobody can buy a badge.
Endpoint
POST https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecast
| Category | Market data |
|---|---|
| Provider host | intel.degenscan.io |
| Networks | eip155:8453, solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp |
| Payment schemes | exact |
| Self-reported calls, 30 days | 1 from 1 payers (the provider's figure, not ours) |
Our checks, last 30 days
| Day | Result | HTTP | Asked | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | valid payment request | 402 | $0.25 | 426 ms |
Example input (from the provider)
{
"body": {
"population": 24,
"question": "Will Bitcoin close above 120,000 USD on 2026-10-31?",
"resolves_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
"rounds": 3,
"runs": 8
},
"bodyType": "json",
"method": "POST",
"type": "http"
}
Promised output schema (from the provider)
{
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"input": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"body": {
"properties": {
"context": {
"type": "string"
},
"population": {
"type": "number"
},
"question": {
"type": "string"
},
"resolves_at": {
"type": "string"
},
"rounds": {
"type": "number"
},
"runs": {
"type": "number"
}
},
"required": [
"question"
]
},
"bodyType": {
"enum": [
"json",
"form-data",
"text"
],
"type": "string"
},
"method": {
"enum": [
"POST"
],
"type": "string"
},
"type": {
"const": "http",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type",
"method",
"bodyType",
"body"
],
"type": "object"
},
"output": {
"properties": {
"example": {
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type"
],
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"input"
],
"type": "object"
}