Prop-firm challenge pass probability and risk statistics from daily returns (blo
Prop-firm challenge pass probability and risk statistics from daily returns (block-bootstrap Monte Carlo, no LLM)
Answeringour last check, 2026-09-24
1 of 1checks answered this week
938 msmedian answer time
$0.01listed price per call
$0.01price it asked us
Paid test badge: not yet. The checks above are free: we call the tool without paying and read the payment request it sends back. The Verified badge needs paid calls whose answers match the promised output, and nobody can buy a badge.
Endpoint
POST https://api.agentsouk.dev/v1/x402/lst_01M2ND5C6502HRV8VA9PMG40W6
| Category | Everything else |
|---|---|
| Provider host | api.agentsouk.dev |
| Networks | eip155:8453 |
| Payment schemes | exact |
| Self-reported calls, 30 days | 1 from 1 payers (the provider's figure, not ours) |
Our checks, last 30 days
| Day | Result | HTTP | Asked | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | valid payment request | 402 | $0.01 | 938 ms |
Example input (from the provider)
{
"body": {
"block_length": 5,
"daily_loss": 0.05,
"daily_returns": [
0.0042,
-0.0018,
0.0031,
0.0007,
-0.0125,
0.0058,
0.0021,
-0.0033,
0.0089,
-0.0006,
0.0014,
0.0037,
-0.0071,
0.0052,
0.0009,
-0.0022,
0.0066,
0.0018,
-0.0154,
0.0047,
0.0029,
-0.0011,
0.0073,
0.0003,
-0.0041,
0.0038,
0.0016,
-0.0088,
0.0061,
0.0024,
-0.0019,
0.0045,
0.0012,
-0.0233,
0.0079,
0.0033,
-0.0008,
0.0056,
0.0021,
-0.0047
],
"max_days": 42,
"max_loss": 0.1,
"scale": 3,
"seed": 0,
"simulations": 10000,
"target": 0.1
},
"bodyType": "json",
"method": "POST",
"type": "http"
}
Promised output schema (from the provider)
{
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"input": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"body": {
"properties": {
"block_length": {
"default": 5,
"description": "Mean block length; 1 = i.i.d.; may exceed the number of days",
"maximum": 250,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "number"
},
"daily_loss": {
"default": 0.05,
"description": "Single-day loss limit (a day at or below -daily_loss busts); 0 = off",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"daily_returns": {
"description": "Daily results as fractions of the starting balance, in order (0.004 = +0.4 %)",
"items": {
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": -1,
"type": "number"
},
"maxItems": 5000,
"minItems": 20,
"type": "array"
},
"max_days": {
"default": 42,
"description": "Trading days the challenge may take",
"maximum": 365,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "integer"
},
"max_loss": {
"default": 0.1,
"description": "Overall loss limit (cumulative at or below -max_loss busts)",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0.0001,
"type": "number"
},
"scale": {
"default": 1,
"description": "Multiplies every return (position size)",
"maximum": 100,
"minimum": 0.001,
"type": "number"
},
"seed": {
"default": 0,
"maximum": 4294967295,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "integer"
},
"simulations": {
"default": 10000,
"maximum": 50000,
"minimum": 100,
"type": "integer"
},
"target": {
"default": 0.1,
"description": "Profit target, fraction of the starting balance",
"maximum": 5,
"minimum": 0.0001,
"type": "number"
},
"trading_days_per_year": {
"default": 252,
"maximum": 366,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "integer"
}
},
"required": [
"daily_returns"
],
"type": "object"
},
"bodyType": {
"enum": [
"json"
],
"type": "string"
},
"method": {
"enum": [
"POST"
],
"type": "string"
},
"type": {
"const": "http",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type",
"method",
"bodyType",
"body"
],
"type": "object"
},
"output": {
"properties": {
"example": {
"properties": {
"caveats": {
"items": {
"type": "string"
},
"type": "array"
},
"challenge": {
"properties": {
"block_length": {
"type": "number"
},
"bust_by": {
"description": "a day breaking both rules counts under daily_loss",
"properties": {
"daily_loss": {
"type": "number"
},
"max_loss": {
"type": "number"
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"bust_probability": {
"type": "number"
},
"days_to_target": {
"description": "trading days until the target over the passing paths; null when none passed",
"properties": {
"median": {
"type": "number"
},
"p25": {
"type": "number"
},
"p75": {
"type": "number"
}
},
"type": [
"object",
"null"
]
},
"pass_probability": {
"type": "number"
},
"path_max_drawdown": {
"properties": {
"p50": {
"type": "number"
},
"p95": {
"type": "number"
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"seed": {
"type": "integer"
},
"simulations": {
"type": "integer"
},
"standard_error": {
"description": "sampling error sqrt(p (1 - p) / simulations)",
"properties": {
"bust_probability": {
"type": "number"
},
"pass_probability": {
"type": "number"
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"terminal_return": {
"description": "cumulative return where each path stopped",
"properties": {
"p25": {
"type": "number"
},
"p5": {
"type": "number"
},
"p50": {